A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
